Early warning
Upcoming at council
Open lobbying registrations that are not yet linked to any council or committee agenda item, with an estimated window for when a linked item may appear, based on how long past registrations on the same topic took.
- With an estimated window
- 1,589
- 99% of open registrations
- Lead-time sample
- 1,207
- Registrations with a published link
1,609 open registrations without a linked item; 1,589 have an estimated window. Lead times are drawn from 1,207 registrations with a published link.
Open registrations by topic
Top 10Topic spikes in the last 12 months
New registrations vs previous 12-month averageData table· 26 rows
Open registrations: City agencies and corporations
All topics →- 24 February 2027 – 20 March 2030Greater Toronto Airports AuthoritySM37824 · approved 29 July 2026
- 31 July 2027 – 8 September 2030Greater Toronto Airports AuthoritySM27982 · approved 8 April 2019
- 3 February 2028 – 5 June 2030Maple Leaf Sports &Entertainment Ltd.SM22870 · approved 7 March 2016
- No window yetDeltera Inc.SM18260 · approved 27 August 2012
Data table· 4 rows
| Registration | Client | Topic | Approved | Estimated window for a linked item |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM37824 Discuss the need to enable Toronto Pearson's Long-Term Investment in Facilities and Terminals (LIFT) program, including possible infrastructure needs and the economic impact of Toronto Pearson's continued growth. | Greater Toronto Airports Authority | City agencies and corporations | 29 July 2026 | 24 February 2027 to 20 March 2030 from all topics' lead times (n=996) |
| SM27982 Discuss Toronto Pearson's groundside transportation. | Greater Toronto Airports Authority | City agencies and corporations | 8 April 2019 | 31 July 2027 to 8 September 2030 from all topics' lead times (n=86) |
| SM22870 Operation and maintenance of Ricoh Coliseum. | Maple Leaf Sports &Entertainment Ltd. | City agencies and corporations | 7 March 2016 | 3 February 2028 to 5 June 2030 from all topics' lead times (n=26) |
| SM18260 Toronto Community Housing Corporation at Leslie and Nymark Drive. 1-35, 45-69 and 6-66 Adra Villaway, 1-25, 2-24, 30-44 and 37-53 Grado Villaway, 1-29 and 2- 28 Tomar Villaway revitaliztion of the site. | Deltera Inc. | City agencies and corporations | 27 August 2012 | No estimate: not enough published links with lead times yet |
How well the window has worked
Backtest on registrations whose first linked item fell between 1 December 2018 and 14 November 2022: no registration could be evaluated (0 of 0 evaluable; 0 registrations with a published first linked item in the period). Each window uses only lead times known before the registration was approved.
Method: iqr-conditional-v1: window = interquartile range of lead times known before approval (topic if n>=10, else pooled); hit when the first published linked item falls inside.
How the window is estimated
- Lead timeDays from a registration's approval to its first published linked agenda item.
- ConditionKeep past lead times longer than the days this registration has already waited.
- WindowThe middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of those lead times.
- Lead time is the number of days from a registration's initial approval date to the first agenda item it is linked to. Only published links count (model score 0.7 or higher).
- For an open registration with no linked item after d days, the window is the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of the historical lead times longer than d, using its topic's lead times when the topic has at least 10, otherwise all topics together.
- A spike is a month whose new registrations exceed the topic's mean over the previous 12 months by more than 2 standard deviations (and at least 3 registrations). Monthly volumes use the topic from the registry's subject categories until the decision model has tagged at least 95% of registrations, so that months tagged by different methods are not compared.
- Topics come from the tracker's taxonomy, assigned by a decision model from the registration text. Until the model has run on a registration, the topic is taken from the registry's own subject category and marked as such.
A window is a statistical estimate from past registrations, not a prediction that council will consider the matter. Many registrations never lead to an agenda item.